The headline is a bit of an exaggeration but not to the extent that you think. The Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency said that Al-Qaeda could be back up and running within a year or two, tops. At first, two years was the estimate but now they believe that things could unfold in half that amount of time.
When the DIA director talks about this rebuild, it should worry everyone who resides in the United States. He is referring to Al-Qaeda’s ability to launch an attack on American soil. The New York Times has more about these ongoing developments:
“The new timeline is not a drastic shift, but reflects the reality that the Taliban have a limited ability to control the borders of Afghanistan…
“The current assessment probably conservatively is one to two years for Al Qaeda to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency said Tuesday at the annual Intelligence and National Security Summit.
David S. Cohen, the deputy director of the C.I.A., said the difficult part of the timeline question was to know when Al Qaeda or the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan would “have the capability to go to strike the homeland” before they could be detected.”
The CIA is currently working tirelessly to track down Al-Qaeda members who are making their way back to Afghanistan. At the moment, names are not being named. Osama bin Laden’s security chief, Amin al Haq, was seen on video arriving there last month.
“Dr. Amin-ul-Haq, a major al-Qaeda player in Afghanistan, Osama Bin Laden security in charge in Tora Bora, returns to his native Nangarhar province after it fell to the Taliban. Dr. Amin became close to OBL in the 80s when he worked with Abdullah Azzam in Maktaba Akhidmat,” Bilal Sarwary shared. The Taliban is heavily devoted to the cause, as well, as they look to assist their friends.
Foreign Policy has more:
“It is often acknowledged that al Qaeda has pledged loyalty to the Taliban. However, it is just as often understated how much weight that pledge carries.
This pledge, called bay’ah, is more than a mere gesture of alliance; it is a sacred, holy relationship that is rarely undone. One that continues to this day.
Osama bin Laden swore allegiance to then-Taliban leader Mullah Omar in the 1990s and, by extension, so did every al Qaeda leader and fighter. And in 2016, following the killing of Taliban head Mullah Mansour, al Qaeda published a 14-minute video featuring its current leader Ayman al-Zawahiri again pledging allegiance to the Taliban–this time to the group’s new leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada…
To date, the Taliban has never disavowed al Qaeda’s pledge, which has helped fuel confidence in al Qaeda members and supporters that these ties endure, regardless of what the Taliban say to the world.”
Yes, the Taliban is saying that they are not going to allow attacks from their territory but we all know that this is not going to last. They are simply saying whatever they have to right now but Al-Qaeda has a sworn allegiance to the Taliban. Now that Taliban has seized control over Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda will be more than safe to hide out there and do whatever it is that they want to do.
It’s a story without very much upside. President Biden had better get on top of things now. The timeline that is being provided at the moment falls squarely during his presidency. He needs to make sure that Al-Qaeda is under control now or things are only going to get worse.
Biden is going to be left holding the bag and taking the blame if there is an attack on American soil. This is his rodeo at this point. He wanted people to think that he knows what he is doing. For our sake, it is imperative that he does.